Executive Summary
Washington’s seasonally adjusted nonfarm employment increased by 7,200 in October after a 3,600 drop in September. A portion of the October gain was due to a large reversal in the government sector after a plunge in September. Private sector payrolls increased by 4,300 in October after a 2,600 gain in September.
Year-over-year employment was up by 3.0 percent (+84,900) in October. Year-over-year job growth has remained healthy over the past three years.
Looking at the 12-month change, the goods-producing sector expanded 4.6 percent since last October with a payroll gain of 22,600. Within the goods-producing sector (and total nonfarm payrolls as well), construction posted the largest year-over-year payroll gain in October (+15,500). Service-providing payrolls increased 2.6 percent in October over the year (+62,300) with professional and business services contributing the most to the yearly rise (+15,000) among service-providers.
In October, industry sectors with the largest job growth were government (+2,900), construction (+900) and manufacturing (+900).
Other services (-200) and transportation, warehousing and utilities (-100) were the weakest industry sectors in October.
Washington’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained unchanged in October from September’s 4.8 percent rate. The state unemployment rate has remained stable since the beginning of this year.
For more information, contact Evelina Tainer at (360) 438-4812.
Industry Employment, Seasonally Adjusted
Nonfarm payroll employment increased 0.2 percent (7,200) on a seasonally adjusted basis in October after decreasing by 0.1 percent (-3,600) in September. The unusual pattern of employment growth in the government sector continued into October. These special factors seem never-ending. Due to an early primary, in August rather than September, poll workers were hired in August, and then laid off in September. This atypical behavior led to a spike in August and a plunge in September. This atypical, out of season, poll worker saga continued into October. Typically, poll workers would be laid off in October (after a September primary), but since we didn’t have any to lay off, it gets reflected as a sharp jump in local government employment for the month. Once again, the private payroll figures (which exclude government) offer a better indication of the state of the economy.
Private sector employment increased 0.2 percent (4,300) in October, stronger than September’s 2,600 gain. On the whole, these two months compared favorably with the pattern of private payroll growth over the past six months.
In the goods-producing sector, construction employment increased by 900 jobs as did manufacturers’ payrolls. Construction payroll growth continues at a moderate pace in sharp contrast to the nation where construction payrolls have posted declines in seven of the ten months of 2007. Washington state residential construction payrolls have moderated their rate of growth over the past several months but were still 3.7 percent higher than a year ago. Nonresidential construction jobs were up 13.6 percent relative to October 2006, showing steady strength.
In the spring, Washington manufacturing payrolls weakened, but accelerated during the summer months. In the past few months, activity has slid into lower gear, but factory payrolls are still on the rise. The aerospace industry has continued to show increases, posting a 400 gain in October payrolls. Aerospace payrolls are 33.4 percent above the 2004 low. Outside aerospace, the state, like the nation, has seen some job losses. Durable goods manufacturing, excluding aerospace have remained relatively stable over the past year; payrolls in this sector are 12.5 percent above the 2003 low. However, nondurable goods manufacturing has experienced a slight downward trend in payrolls over the past several years that does not seem to be improving.
The services-providing sector posted a 0.2 percent gain (+5,400) in October. This was largely due to the spurt in government payrolls. As previously mentioned, it reflects atypical behavior in the government sector.
In the private sector, professional and business services, which slipped to second place in terms of number of jobs added to total payrolls in Washington over the year, rose by 700 jobs in October after a gain of 500 jobs in September.
Wholesale trade added 600 jobs to their payrolls in October after a 200 payroll gain in September. On average, this sector has shown steady growth in 2007.
Leisure and hospitality gained 600 jobs in October, recovering only a portion of the 1,000 jobs lost in September.
Financial activities payrolls grew by 600 jobs in October and have improved over the year, up 1.6 percent from a year ago.
Retail trade payrolls rose modestly (+300) in October from September levels. Building materials and grocery stores added to payrolls in October, although employment declined at general merchandise stores.
Education and health services were unchanged in October after gaining 1,300 jobs in both August and September. In September, the bulk of the job gain came from the health service sector, but both sectors contributed equally to the August increase. October job gains in health services offset declines in education services.
Information services were unchanged over the month, but up 4.6 percent over the year.
Labor Force Data, Seasonally Adjusted
Washington’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained unchanged in October from September’s 4.8 percent rate. The unemployment rate has remained in a relatively narrow range since the beginning of this year – at historically low levels. In October 2006, the unemployment rate was 0.2 percentage points higher at 5.0 percent.
The seasonally adjusted civilian labor force inched up 0.1 percent in October to 3,449,700 and was up 3.3 percent from a year ago. Seasonally adjusted employment also rose 0.1 percent in October to 3,285,100 and was 3.6 percent higher than year ago levels.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, total unemployment dipped 0.1 percent in October from September to a level of 164,600. The number of unemployed persons was 2.1 percent lower than in October 2006.
The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for Seattle-Everett-Bellevue increased to 4.0 percent in October from 3.8 percent in September. This change is not statistically significant and keeps the unemployment rate in the Seattle area at low levels. The labor force was roughly unchanged in October at 1,451,400; employment decreased 0.2 percent in October, bringing the level to 1,392,700.
